24/09/25

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The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continues to demonstrate upward momentum, approaching key technical resistance levels during European trading hours. Currently trading near $63.60 per barrel, WTI is testing the immediate resistance provided by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $63.67. Technical indicators suggest a positive trend: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating bullish momentum, while the price has recently moved above the nine-day EMA, reaffirming short-term strength.

Within a broader consolidation pattern, WTI’s price appears to be confined within a rectangular trading range, with the upper boundary near $65.70. A decisive move above this level could signal an extension of the rally toward the five-month high of approximately $70.02, recorded on July 30. Conversely, failure to break above resistance may lead to a retracement. Immediate support levels are identified at the nine-day EMA of $63.14, while a breach of this support could push prices lower toward $61.60 — close to the recent three-month low of September 5.

Market participants closely monitor supply-demand fundamentals alongside technical signals. Global economic growth influences demand levels, while geopolitical risks, sanctions, and conflicts can tighten supplies, impacting prices. OPEC’s production decisions are another critical factor; maintaining or reducing output tends to support higher prices, whereas increased production can exert downward pressure.

Furthermore, oil prices are sensitive to fluctuations in the US dollar, as crude is predominantly traded in dollars. A weaker dollar often makes oil cheaper for international buyers, potentially supporting higher prices, while a stronger dollar can suppress them.

Weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration provide additional insights into short-term supply-demand dynamics. Declining inventories generally suggest increased demand, supporting price gains, whereas rising stocks indicate ample supply, potentially leading to price declines. Overall, the oil market remains influenced by a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and technical factors, rendering it a complex environment for traders and investors alike.