24/06/26

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USD/CHF extended its advance for a sixth straight session on Wednesday, briefly touching 0.811 in Asian trading and reaching its highest level in seven months. The pair has been supported by broad US dollar strength, as investors continue to assess the evolving geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East.

Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities. That view was quickly softened by Iran’s foreign minister, who indicated that meaningful nuclear negotiations have not yet started. At the same time, Iran’s lead negotiator warned that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to its pre-war condition and would remain under Iranian oversight. Diplomacy also remained active elsewhere, with Washington hosting another round of Israel-Lebanon talks aimed at securing a ceasefire involving Hezbollah.

Fresh US economic data added to the dollar’s resilience. The flash S&P Global Composite PMI for June rose to 52.2 from 51.5 in May, signaling continued expansion in private-sector activity. Manufacturing output increased to 55.7 from 55.1, outperforming expectations, while the services index edged up to 51.3 from 50.7 and also came in above forecasts. The figures suggest that the US economy is still growing at a solid pace despite higher borrowing costs.

Those data releases pushed markets toward a more hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve. According to pricing implied by Fed funds futures, traders now assign a much higher probability to a rate increase later in the year, with expectations for December having risen sharply over the past week.

By contrast, the Swiss National Bank has kept its policy rate unchanged at 0% for a fourth consecutive meeting. While the central bank remains committed to price stability and economic support, it also raised its inflation forecast and reiterated that it stands ready to intervene in foreign-exchange markets if the Swiss franc strengthens too far. Later in the day, traders will watch the Swiss ZEW expectations survey and the SNB’s quarterly bulletin for additional guidance on the outlook.