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28/06/24
111
USD/JPY Remained Unchanged
The JPY has been pushed past 161, remaining unchanged on June 28 after hitting a fresh low against the USD. It fell to a low level of 161.28, representing its lowest level in 38 years, and then recorded a retracement to around 160.73 at press time.
Japan’s core inflation excluding fresh food, which is closely monitored by the apex bank, rose from May’s 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent this month on a yearly basis, relative to the 2 percent forecast. Higher prices for electricity and natural gas were said to have facilitated the increase. The headline CPI moved from April’s 2.2 percent to 2.3 percent.
The data is suggesting sustained pressure on the BoJ to hike rates but it has not taken any action. Markets do not expect the Bank of Japan to increase rates at its meeting next month. The focus for BoJ policymakers is on inflation driven by demand and they require more evidence of inflation remaining at the 2 percent target prior to hiking rates.
However, the JPY’s continued decline may influence the apex bank to hike rates imminently. The JPY has continued to fall against the USD, plunging by 14 percent since the beginning of this year. The previous interventions on April 29 and May 1 helped push the JPY up 5 percent from its lowest level in 34 years of 160.245 at the time. Unfortunately, the measures did not stop the decline.
Masato Kanda said the JPY’s rapid deprecation was a “serious concern” and events are being monitored with a “heightened sense of urgency”. However, the verbal intervention did not stop the JPY from falling.
On June 28, the Japanese government appointed financial regulation professional Atsushi Mimura as its leading currency diplomat to replace Masato Kanda. Markets await Mimura’s plans to defend the yen.
A look at the chart of USD/JPY shows a push past two barrier levels, including 160.90 and 161.18. There is another barrier level 161.53; two support levels include 160.63 and 160.43.
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