10/03/26

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Gold prices continue to recover from recent lows, gaining momentum during the Asian trading session. This rebound follows a cautious rally from the vicinity of the $5,000 level, a psychologically significant level for the precious metal. The prevailing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have bolstered safe-haven demand, with Iranian officials dismissing recent US assertions that the conflicts there will soon conclude. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps emphasized that Tehran alone will determine when hostilities end, thereby maintaining heightened regional risks. These developments sustain investor interest in gold as a protective asset amid ongoing uncertainties.

In the energy complex, crude oil prices have regained strength after a sharp reversal from the highest levels seen since June 2022. Concerns over potential disruptions in Strait of Hormuz shipping routes have contributed to these fluctuations. Rising oil prices could fuel inflationary pressures in the United States, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve might delay easing monetary policy. This scenario supports sustained higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, which in turn bolster the U.S. dollar and exert downward pressure on gold prices. Despite the recent uptick, gold remains confined below the $5,200 resistance level as markets await fresh cues.

Market participants are turning their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data, scheduled for release later this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results, together with the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, are expected to influence Federal Reserve policy outlooks and the dollar’s strength. These reports could significantly impact the metall’s momentum by shifting expectations around interest rate adjustments.

Technically, gold continues to oscillate within a defined range, with support levels near the 200-period exponential moving average around $5,010. The recent positive crossover of the MACD indicator suggests growing upward momentum, while the Relative Strength Index remains modestly above 50, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook. Maintaining levels above $5,010 would affirm the current bullish bias, with initial resistance around $5,140 and subsequent hurdles near $5,190 and $5,230 levels. Conversely, a sustained move below $5,010 could signal a retracement, prompting traders to reconsider their bullish stance.