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18/09/24
6
Gold Prices Rebound Amid Fed Speculation as Dollar Weakens
Gold prices are experiencing a resurgence after a recent dip from historic highs, as market participants eagerly await crucial updates from the U.S. Federal Reserve. This uptick comes as the U.S. dollar falters, reflecting caution amidst the anticipation of the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. Analysts are closely monitoring the price level of around $2,570, which may indicate a renewed upward momentum if sustained, with the potential to revisit all-time highs near $2,590.
As the Fed prepares to announce its policy stance, market expectations suggest a 65% chance of a 50 basis points rate cut. This speculation has contributed to a reduced demand for the U.S. dollar, compounded by tepid Treasury bond yields. The focus is now on the Fed’s decisions, expected comments from Chairman Jerome Powell, and the projections detailed in the updated Dot Plot, all of which will shape perceptions of future monetary policy direction.
Should the Fed choose to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points, it could lead to an immediate rise in the US Dollar. Nonetheless, the overarching narrative surrounding the Fed’s guidance and Powell’s remarks may overshadow initial reactions. If the Fed signals a dovish stance alongside expansive rate projections, gold could see fresh record highs as the Dollar weakens. Conversely, if comments reflect concerns about rising inflation, the outlook for gold may dim.
Recent fluctuations in gold prices were partly impacted by a profit-taking wave in the US Dollar, as strong August Retail Sales data revealed a 0.1% increase. This figure somewhat alleviated apprehensions regarding a potential economic downturn in the US.
From a technical perspective, the gold market shows resilience with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining solidly above the neutral threshold, suggesting potential for further gains. Key support is identified at $2,560, while immediate resistance lies at the recent high of $2,590. In the event of negative signals from the Fed, however, gold may retreat towards significant support levels around $2,532, with further declines bringing attention to the 21-day Simple Moving Average at approximately $2,522.
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