06/09/24

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The EUR/USD currency pair is currently holding steady after recently bouncing back from a two-week low reached earlier this week. Market participants are pausing their trading activities as they await crucial employment data from the United States, which is expected to influence future market movements. This backdrop appears to favor bullish traders and raises the possibility of further price appreciation.

Throughout Friday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair has struggled to extend the gains seen over the past couple of days, fluctuating within a tight range. Prices remain above the significant 1.1100 level, indicating a lack of direction as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach in anticipation of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

From a technical standpoint, the recent rebound observed from the support zone between 1.1075 and 1.1070 appears to stall near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level associated with the latest corrective trend. The earlier breakout past the resistance zone around 1.1090 – 1.1095 — comprising both the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart — strengthens the case for bullish movements.

Positive signals are also reflected in daily oscillators, which remain in favorable territory, indicating that there is still potential for upward momentum. For bullish positions to gain traction, a sustained breakthrough above the 50% Fibonacci resistance is necessary; this could pave the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level near the 1.1135 level.

Should the bulls succeed in pushing the EUR/USD towards these levels, the pair may aim to retest the year-to-date peak around the 1.1200 level reached in August. A continuation of buying pressure would facilitate a breakout that could extend the rally towards intermediate resistance at 1.1240 – 1.1245, while also targeting the July 2023 swing high around 1.1275.

Conversely, the 1.1095 – 1.1090 region now serves as immediate support, bolstered by the 23.6% Fibonacci level around 1.1070 – 1.1065. A decisive move below this area could expose the weekly low of approximately 1.1025, which was recorded earlier this week, potentially leading the EUR/USD down toward the psychological barrier at 1.1000. If broken, this critical support level may shift market sentiment toward a bearish outlook.