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10/09/25
103
EUR/USD Sits Tight Ahead of US Data Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The EUR/USD currency pair remains relatively subdued in early European trading, hovering around the 1.1700 level. Despite reaching a high of approximately 1.1780 in the previous session — its strongest point since late July — the pair has since retreated, reflecting a loss of upward momentum. Market participants are awaiting upcoming economic data from the United States, which could serve as a catalyst for further directional movement.
The dollar maintained resilience despite an initially bearish reaction to a revision in US employment figures, which indicated that nonfarm payrolls for March 2025 were 911,000 lower than previously reported. This discrepancy did little to undermine the USD in the broader context of a market that remains cautious amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Risk aversion continues to underpin the dollar’s strength, even as short-term shifts suggest some momentum for the euro.
Investors are eyeing US producer inflation data scheduled for release this week. The consensus anticipates a 0.3% rise in the Producer Price Index for August on a monthly basis, with an annual increase of about 3.3%. Should the PPI rise more sharply — say, by 0.5% or higher — it could bolster the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, a reading at or below expectations might temper the dollar’s gains, possibly allowing the euro to stabilize or regain footing.
Ahead of key policy announcements from the European Central Bank and US inflation data, market participants are likely to adopt a cautious stance, refraining from large positional bets. Technical levels indicate support around 1.1670, where the 20- and 50-day moving averages converge, followed by stronger support near 1.1640-1.1630. Resistance is identified at approximately 1.1730 and 1.1760, with key static levels at 1.1790-1.1800, aligned with the upper boundary of an ascending price channel.
Overall, market conditions remain sensitive to forthcoming economic releases, with geopolitical developments adding an extra layer of uncertainty to the euro’s outlook.
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