18/09/24

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The cryptocurrency market experienced a notable rebound on Tuesday, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) leading the charge to levels unseen in over a month. This surge comes amid widespread expectations of an impending interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, the first since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional trends suggest that during Bitcoin Halving years, the fourth quarter tends to be particularly bullish for both Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.

Analyzing Ethereum’s price trajectory following prior Bitcoin Halving events reveals diverse performance outcomes. In the year succeeding the 2016 halving, Ethereum faced a 45% decline before embarking on a staggering rally that culminated in a 3,400% increase. A similar pattern emerged after the 2020 Halving, where Ethereum’s price soared by 150% and eventually achieved a remarkable 2,150% gain. However, since the latest Halving in April, Ethereum has mirrored Bitcoin’s volatility, leading to significant price fluctuations and the establishment of lower support levels.

Over the past month, Ethereum has encountered a tumultuous period, characterized by two substantial crashes. On August 5, Ethereum’s price retraced more than 25%, reaching a six-month low around $2,110. The downward momentum persisted into September, further exacerbated by increased selling pressure that dropped its price from $2,800 to approximately $2,150 in just a week. Despite these challenges, there are indications of potential recovery in the fourth quarter, as analysts point to a “triple bottom” formation on the ETH/USDT daily chart, reminiscent of the price patterns seen in 2021.

Currently priced around $2,330, Ethereum remains more than 52% below its previous record high. As the market anticipates the Fed’s decision, key price levels are crucial for Ethereum. The $2,260 level has emerged as a significant support level, vital for preventing further declines toward $2,200 or a retest of the $2,100 level. Conversely, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2,350 presents a key resistance point that has thwarted Ethereum’s attempts to reclaim the $2,400 level. If Ethereum can overcome these resistance levels, bullish investors will likely target the next significant resistance at $2,520, with the 200-day EMA positioned at $2,620 serving as another pivotal barrier that has remained unbroken since July.