31/03/26

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Bitcoin has recently retested a pivotal price level after experiencing a breakdown from a bearish pattern, leading many analysts to suggest that the cryptocurrency may be approaching its final correction before the next long-term bullish cycle.

A prominent market observer indicated that Bitcoin’s current technical signals echo historical patterns observed over the past decade. Specifically, the crossover between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) has served as a reliable indicator of the ultimate bottom of each major cycle since 2014. These crossovers have consistently marked the end of prolonged declines and the beginning of significant upward trends. In previous instances, such as in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin had already fallen 50% to over 70% from previous peaks when these moving averages crossed. Following these signals, the asset typically continued its decline for several weeks, sometimes forming lower lows before a sustained rally.

Currently, Bitcoin has experienced a 52% correction from its peak in October 2025, with the SMA crossover occurring earlier this year on February 27. Approximately 30 days have passed since then, aligning closely with historical timelines for final capitulation phases. If past cycles repeat, it suggests that the asset could enter a final accumulation phase in the next three to six days, potentially offering a reset for long-term investors.

Despite the ongoing decline, historical data indicates that these correction phases present strategic opportunities for accumulation. The levels around $40,000 and $30,000 have emerged as significant zones where investors might consider building positions in anticipation of the next bull market. Structurally, this period might represent the last major downside move before a macro bottom establishing a new long-term upward cycle.

In technical analysis, Bitcoin’s recent price action also points toward a possible breakdown of a bearish flag pattern. After approaching levels near $66,000 and $68,000 to test resistance, the cryptocurrency experienced a correction that saw prices retreat to around $65,000. The pattern’s breakdown, combined with dips below previous support, raises the risk of further declines toward lower levels, potentially below $57,000, especially considering historical precedents where market bottoms have formed below key Fibonacci retracement levels. This situation underscores the importance of monitoring key technical signals for insights into future price movements.