29/05/25

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Bitcoin is trading at approximately $108,000, having recently reached a new all-time high. Market analysts predict that Bitcoin could surge by at least 50% by November, driven by a unique convergence of macroeconomic indicators, technical analysis, and blockchain data. This bullish scenario suggests that the cryptocurrency is in an exceptionally favorable position at its current peak.

The groundwork for this forecast was laid back in April when Bitcoin was around $93,000. A notable price increase of 16% over the month has validated the optimistic outlook and sets the stage for further gains. The key factor behind this potential rally is termed the “Hard Asset Era.” This phase indicates that investors are increasingly prioritizing scarce assets over equities, as reflected by a breakout in the Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio surpassing its 200-week moving average.

Historically, significant outperformance of gold has been observed over stocks in similar periods, with past cycles showing a 150% to 650% advantage. As Bitcoin typically follows gold with a slight delay, it stands to benefit from similar upward momentum in the near future.

Recent developments in financial policy have fueled this asset rotation. Changes in banking regulations have promoted gold to Tier-1 reserve status, requiring banks to support paper assets with physical holdings. Additionally, the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has opened the door for institutional investments in cryptocurrency. Furthermore, the U.S. government’s establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve aims to enhance its legitimacy as an asset.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s drop to $75,000 in April, followed by a swift recovery above $90,000, has been deemed a classic false breakdown, with the recent weekly close above $90,000 indicating a new upward trend. As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above the $104,000 level, the outlook remains highly optimistic, making this level a key support point.

Overall, a combination of bullish market structure, strong technical indicators, and favorable economic conditions suggests that Bitcoin could experience substantial growth in the coming months. Policymaking will be the main risk factor to monitor, particularly concerning trade negotiations which could affect market sentiment. Currently, Bitcoin holds solid promise for both short- and long-term investment strategies.