24/02/26

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Recent on-chain data indicates continued distress among Bitcoin’s short-term holders, who are experiencing significant losses amid ongoing market volatility. According to analytics firm Glassnode, investors within this category have been realizing net losses of approximately $480 million daily. The key metric, the Net Realized Profit/Loss, has recently shifted into negative territory, signaling widespread capitulation among newer market participants.

The focus on short-term holders — those who have purchased Bitcoin within the last 155 days — reveals their vulnerability during turbulent periods. Since these investors are typically less resistant to market swings, they tend to sell off holdings quickly in response to price declines. This behavior amplifies the downward pressure, especially during market corrections. The recent declines following Bitcoin’s peak in October have seen this group incur substantial realized losses, with the 7-day exponential moving average of the Net Realized Profit/Loss dropping sharply into negative territory. Although there was a partial recovery in January amid a market uptick, subsequent declines have pushed the indicator back down, with losses reaching $1.24 billion per day at the beginning of February. Currently, this figure stands at approximately $480 million daily, illustrating ongoing distress within this investor cohort.

In addition to on-chain metrics, the Coinbase Premium Gap has signaled heightened selling pressure from US-based investors. This indicator measures the difference in Bitcoin’s spot price on Coinbase versus Binance; a sustained negative reading suggests that US institutional and retail investors are selling Bitcoin at a discount. Since mid-December, the premium gap has remained negative, implying a persistent lack of demand from this segment.

Amid these developments, Bitcoin’s price continues to trend lower, recently trading around $64,000. The combination of persistent short-term holder losses and declining premiums reflects a cautious market environment, with evidence pointing to significant capitulation and reduced buying interest among key investor groups.