23/06/26

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Gold came under renewed selling pressure during the Asian session on Tuesday, slipping back below $4,150 and erasing much of the previous day’s advance. The decline followed another leg higher in the US Dollar, which remained supported by a firmer outlook for Federal Reserve policy and by its recent climb to the strongest level since May 2025. As a non-yielding asset, gold tends to struggle when the dollar strengthens and US interest-rate expectations turn more hawkish.

Geopolitical developments offered only limited support to the metal. Qatar and Pakistan said the first round of US-Iran negotiations ended with encouraging progress, and both sides reportedly agreed to a roadmap toward a final accord within 60 days. The US also temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports, reinforcing hopes that diplomacy could ease tensions. Even so, confidence in a lasting agreement remains fragile because official messages from Washington and Tehran have not fully aligned.

US leaders continue to stress that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains the priority, even if negotiations drag on. At the same time, concerns persist over the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader regional conflict, including renewed mediation efforts over fighting in Lebanon involving Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel. Those risks are helping keep some safe-haven demand in the market, though not enough to offset dollar strength.

Monetary policy is also weighing on gold. Last week’s Fed signal that rates may need to rise again if inflation remains sticky has lifted expectations for at least one more increase later this year. Comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who said inflation is moving in the wrong direction, have reinforced that view.

Traders are now waiting for flash US PMI data, along with remarks from Fed officials and Thursday’s PCE inflation report and final first-quarter GDP release. These events could drive the next move in the dollar and gold.

Technically, gold remains under pressure below the 100-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart. A recovery above $4,311 would be needed to improve the near-term picture, while failure to do so would leave the metal exposed to further declines.