04/05/26

10

USD/CHF edged lower in Asian trading on Monday, giving back a portion of the previous day’s modest gains and hovering near 0.7810. The pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar weakens on reduced demand for safe-haven assets, while investors weigh signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations. Attention later in the day will turn to Switzerland’s SVME manufacturing PMI, which could offer another gauge of domestic economic momentum.

Recent Swiss data showed a mixed picture for consumption. Real retail sales rose 0.5% year over year in March, falling short of expectations for a 1% increase after February’s reading was revised to a 0.4% gain. On a monthly basis, sales increased 0.1% after a revised 0.1% decline in February. The numbers suggest household spending is improving only gradually, even as broader economic conditions remain uneven.

Geopolitical developments continue to influence currency markets. Mediation efforts aimed at easing the Iran conflict have intensified as the war enters its third month. Reports on Sunday indicated that Washington viewed Tehran’s latest peace proposal as unlikely to meet expectations. Iran has reportedly suggested a one-month timetable for talks focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the US naval blockade, along with the conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.

Additional reports said the United States plans to begin guiding neutral ships stranded in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The move is intended to help civilian vessels from non-aligned countries leave the disputed waterway and resume normal trade routes. In response, an Iranian official warned that any US intervention in Hormuz would be treated as a violation of the ceasefire.

Market participants are also looking ahead to the US employment report for April due later this week. Economists expect the economy to add 73,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.3%. The data could help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path and influence the dollar’s near-term direction.