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30/04/26
10
USD/CHF Rises as Fed Turns Hawkish and Dollar Firms
USD/CHF extended its advance for a third straight session on Thursday, trading near 0.7920 in Asian hours. The pair drew support from a firmer US Dollar, which recovered after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but delivered a more hawkish message than markets had anticipated.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8-4 to keep its policy rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range, the first meeting with four dissents since 1992. Policymakers pointed to persistent inflation pressures and said price growth remained elevated, in part because of the recent increase in global energy costs. That tone prompted traders to reassess the likelihood of near-term easing.
Morgan Stanley also adjusted its outlook, now expecting no rate cuts from the Fed through the end of the year. The bank had previously projected two quarter-point reductions, in September and December, but now sees inflation staying stubbornly high while recent data continue to point to a resilient US economy.
The Dollar received additional support from safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump said the naval blockade on Iran would remain in place until a nuclear agreement is reached, while Tehran warned of retaliation and accused Washington of using pressure tactics that could further destabilize the region.
On the Swiss side, recent data offered only limited support to the franc. The ZEW survey showed Swiss expectations improving to -30.3 in April from -35.0 in March, although sentiment remained weak overall. More than half of respondents expect conditions to stay broadly unchanged over the next six months, while a little more than a third foresee deterioration.
Attention now turns to the March KOF Leading Indicator, which may provide a clearer signal on the outlook for the Swiss economy.
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