11/02/26

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Bitcoin has recently tested the psychological threshold of $70,000 amid ongoing volatility, but its repeated failures to sustain trading above this level highlight the fragile nature of current demand. Each attempt to push beyond this resistance has been met with renewed selling pressure, suggesting that the market remains in a correction phase rather than a state of robust recovery. Caution persists among traders, especially as liquidity conditions tighten and market participants await clearer signs of stabilization.

Recent on-chain analysis reveals a notable shift among large Bitcoin holders. Many whales who originally accumulated positions near $96,000 are now experiencing significant unrealized losses due to the subsequent decline in price. These entities, after briefly testing higher levels, have reversed course sharply, exposing late-entry investors to mounting downside risks. This behavior indicates a reassessment of risk among major players, with some reducing exposure or rebalancing portfolios amidst uncertain macroeconomic and sector-specific conditions. Such adjustments often lead to short-term volatility, particularly as leveraged positions are unwound.

Data shows a significant volume of realized losses among large holders over the past days, reaching nearly $944 million on February 3, escalated to over $1.46 billion on February 5, and then remaining substantial. These figures point to a capitulation among late-cycle investors, who are now liquidating holdings at a loss. While this process suggests a redistribution of supply — where coins are transferred from weaker to stronger hands — it also signifies a shift in market structure. The recent cost basis of approximately $90,000 for recent large acquisitions indicates that accumulation efforts centered around this level, which could act as a potential resistance zone during subsequent rallies.

Technically, Bitcoin’s recent price behavior underscores ongoing distribution rather than a recovery. After multiple failed attempts to sustain above $90,000 to $100,000, the asset entered a downtrend characterized by lower highs and sharp selloffs, with volume expanding during declines. Prices currently trade below key moving averages that are trending downward, signaling a mature correction phase. The $60,000 to $65,000 support zone remains crucial; a sustained hold could stabilize the market, while a breach might open the door to further downside and increased volatility. In the near term, the pattern suggests a reactive market environment with limited conviction until significant volume and trend indicators improve.