15/09/25

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The EUR/USD currency pair remains largely unchanged in early trading on Monday, trading just above the 1.1700 level. Investors are currently hesitant to take significant positions ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, contributing to a subdued and sideways movement in the pair. Technical analysis indicates a neutral outlook, with oscillators and moving averages suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum at this time.

On Friday, Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, citing concerns over the upcoming budget negotiations and the likelihood of a less stringent fiscal consolidation plan than previously proposed. The development has exerted some pressure on the euro, limiting its gains amid cautious market sentiment. Meanwhile, remarks from a European Central Bank Governing Council member highlighted concerns that continued euro appreciation could hinder export-oriented industries within the Eurozone.

Market participants will pay close attention to the economic calendar this week, although Monday’s session is relatively sparse on major macroeconomic releases. Early trading sees US stock futures mixed, with risk sentiment potentially influencing the Euro’s direction in the American trading session. If markets turn risk-off, the EUR/USD pair may struggle to sustain its current levels.

From a technical perspective, the pair’s relative strength index remains above 50 on the four-hour chart, while trading above both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages. This indicates a balanced but relatively cautious environment, without significant bullish or bearish commitments. Resistance levels are identified around 1.1770 and 1.1800, with upward momentum potentially encountering obstacles near these points. On the downside, support is seen near 1.1690-1.1700, with additional support levels at 1.1660, aligning with key moving averages and technical boundaries.

The euro continues to be a major player in global currency markets, constituting a significant portion of daily foreign exchange transactions. Its value is heavily influenced by ECB monetary policy decisions, inflation data, and economic indicators from the Eurozone’s largest economies. Overall, investors remain cautious as they await clearer signals from upcoming policy meetings and economic data releases that could shape the euro’s short-term trajectory.