26/06/25

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Gold prices are consolidating after a recent rebound, maintaining momentum above the key support level of $3,225. As of early Thursday, the precious metal remains confined within the bounds of the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages, with the daily relative strength index indicating a neutral bias. Market participants will continue to monitor forthcoming economic indicators, including mid-tier US data releases and the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation figures scheduled for Friday, which are expected to influence the direction of gold and the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has hit three-year lows across major currency pairs, extending a four-day losing streak. This broad weakening is partly attributable to renewed political tensions, notably President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve’s credibility. Reports suggest that the President is considering a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with names such as Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, David Malpass, and Christopher Waller circulating as potential candidates. Such speculation raises questions about the future monetary policy direction and the Fed’s independence, with market watchers cautious about the implications for rates and dollar strength.

Despite the dollar’s decline, gold has struggled to advance significantly, in part due to optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which alleviates some geopolitical tensions. Additionally, gold confronted headwinds following Fed Chair Powell’s recent congressional testimonies, where he indicated a cautious stance on rate cuts until more clarity emerges regarding the inflationary impact of recent tariffs. This sentiment reaffirms the Fed’s data-dependent approach, which leaves gold traders awaiting clearer signals.

Technical analysis reveals that gold remains supported by the 50-day SMA at approximately $3,325. However, resistance levels are evident near the 21-day SMA of $3,355 and Fibonacci retracement levels at $3,377. A break below $3,297 could usher in a renewed downtrend toward $3,250, while sustained gains above $3,352 are needed to regain bullish momentum. Overall, the metal’s near-term trajectory will likely depend on U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments influencing the greenback’s strength.