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16/04/25
33
EUR/USD Eyes 1.1400 Amid Soft US Dollar and Tariff Negotiation Concerns
The EUR/USD currency pair is showing bullish momentum as it approaches the 1.1400 level, buoyed by a decline in the strength of the US dollar on Wednesday. The shift follows a brief period of bearish influence, which saw the pair close lower on Tuesday.
The US dollar faced renewed selling pressure after reports indicated that negotiations concerning existing tariffs between the United States and the European Union had made little headway. This came in light of commentary regarding the US administration’s intentions to leverage tariff discussions to encourage foreign partners to reduce their engagement with China. As a result, the EUR/USD rate began to recover, reflecting a market adjustment to the evolving economic landscape.
As the day progresses, attention turns to key economic data set for release. The US Census Bureau is expected to provide retail sales figures for March, with forecasts suggesting a monthly increase of 1.3%. Should the data exceed expectations, the dollar could strengthen temporarily; however, any positive impact may have limited longevity in influencing valuation.
Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook later in the session. Market expectations currently indicate a modest 20% chance that the Fed may consider a rate cut of 25 basis points at its next meeting. Should Powell’s address lean toward a hawkish tone, it may provide some upward momentum for the dollar.
From a technical perspective, resistance for EUR/USD can be anticipated at the 1.1400 level, which aligns with the midpoint of its ascending channel. Additional resistance levels are noted at 1.1470 and the psychologically significant 1.1500. Conversely, support is expected at 1.1340, followed by 1.1300 and 1.1250, highlighting the potential for fluctuations in the near future.
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