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18/11/24
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USD/CAD Faces Headwinds Amid Fed Hawkishness and Oil Price Optimism
The USD/CAD exchange rate is facing challenges to maintain its upward momentum as it aims for a seventh consecutive day of gains. The strength of the US Dollar is largely supported by recent hawkish statements from officials at the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the Canadian Dollar, which is closely tied to commodity prices, may find some support from the rising optimism regarding oil prices in the context of growing concerns over potential supply disruptions.
During the early hours of trading on Monday, USD/CAD recognized support around 1.4090, just below the four-year peak of 1.4105 reached on the prior Friday. The bullish performance of the pair is largely attributed to the robust US Dollar, which has been strengthened by assertive comments from Fed officials. The Fed Chair has indicated that the economy does not currently warrant a rush to lower interest rates, highlighting its overall resilience, a solid labor market, and ongoing inflationary trends.
In addition to these comments, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has advocated for a measured and cautious approach towards the neutral interest rate. Meanwhile, the Boston Fed President has tempered market expectations of immediate rate cuts while still suggesting a potential reduction could come as early as December.
The future movement of the USD/CAD pair will also be influenced by developments surrounding oil prices, which have seen optimism amid fears of supply issues linked to rising geopolitical tensions. However, the Canadian Dollar could face headwinds as traders brace for the possibility of the Bank of Canada implementing rate cuts in response to slowing inflation and economic weakness. The upcoming Canadian Consumer Price Index report is expected to provide critical insights into the central bank’s future policy trajectory.
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