30/09/24

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On the final trading day of the third quarter, the US Dollar (USD) is facing challenges in generating demand. Investors are shifting their focus to the Consumer Price Index data from Germany, scheduled for release in the early part of the day. Additionally, several officials from the Federal Reserve, including Chairman Jerome Powell, are set to speak later in the American session.

The USD Index experienced a downturn on Friday, reaching its lowest point in over a year at 100.15 before rebounding slightly by the week’s end. In August, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index saw a modest rise of 0.1%, falling short of the anticipated 0.2%. As Monday progresses, the USD Index remains below the 100.50 mark. Powell’s upcoming participation in a discussion at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Nashville is anticipated to draw significant attention, alongside comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman early in the day. Concurrently, US stock index futures are trading slightly lower.

In China, the latest data reveals a decline in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI to 49.3 in September, down from 50.4 in August. The Caixin Services PMI also fell, coming in at 50.3 compared to the previous 51.6. Reports indicate that the People’s Bank of China is urging banks to reduce mortgage rates for existing home loans by the end of October as part of efforts to bolster the struggling property sector amid a slowing economy. Meanwhile, in Australia, the ANZ Business Confidence Index improved significantly to 60.9 in September from 50.6 the month prior, leading to a rise in AUD/USD, which has reached levels above 0.6900, marking its highest since February 2023.

The UK’s Office for National Statistics has revised its annualized GDP growth estimate for the second quarter downward to 0.7%, down from the initial estimate of 0.9%. Following this data, GBP/USD recorded slight gains, hovering just below 1.3400.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to decline after a notable drop on Friday, now targeting the 142.00 mark. Japan’s incoming Prime Minister recently suggested a snap election may occur on October 27, with expectations that parliament could be dissolved by October 9, which could impact market sentiment. EUR/USD remains stable, trading within a narrow range above 1.1150. Gold, after reaching an all-time high of over $2,680 on Thursday, is holding steady in a tight range above $2,650.