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04/09/24
109
EUR/USD Struggles Amid Bearish Sentiment and Anticipated JOLTS Data
The euro is currently trading at approximately 1.1050 against the US dollar during the European session on Wednesday. This follows a slight decline on Tuesday, maintaining a bearish sentiment in the near-term technical outlook for the currency pair.
A prevailing negative market sentiment has contributed to the US dollar’s strength against other major currencies, which hindered any potential recovery for the EUR/USD exchange rate. Recent data from the manufacturing sector indicated a continued contraction in business activity for August, though at a decelerated rate compared to July’s figures.
Later today, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July. Analysts anticipate that job openings will total around 8.1 million. A significant increase beyond this expectation could provide a substantial boost to the US dollar, potentially driving EUR/USD to lower levels. Conversely, if the report shows job openings falling below 8 million, it could limit gains for the dollar against the euro.
In tandem with these developments, US stock futures have exhibited declines ranging from 0.2% to 0.6%. Should major indexes on Wall Street open significantly lower and continue their downward trend, it is likely that EUR/USD will remain under pressure regardless of the initial market reaction to the JOLTS data.
Technical indicators suggest that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is hovering around the 40 level, indicating weak buyer interest. If the pair experiences a downturn, immediate support is expected at 1.1040, a key Fibonacci retracement level, followed by psychological support at 1.1000 and further at 1.0975. On the upside, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) offers resistance around 1.1075, followed by further resistance at levels between 1.1100 and 1.1160.
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